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Explained: Internet of Things: how it will change the world

25 May 2011 76 views No Comment

Try to imagine a world where everything is interconnected. A world where you can modify your own reality to see what you want to see, where your coffee machine knows when you need your next fix, and the high streets are populated with characters from your favourite PC games.

This future is not some distant dream as imagined by fans of Minority Report. Much of this technology is already here, and the current rate of development has futurists claiming that this will be a reality within the next five to ten years.

According to a recent report by Amdocs, experts are predicting that there will be seven trillion networked devices by 2017, delivering a connected life that has immediate access to data, media, communities and communications across a broad range of devices.

We have been promised this interconnected world since the 1980s, but limitations such as costs and the size and capabilities of chips and infrastructure, have kept many innovations on hold.

However, 4G and IPv6 now offer vast superhighways of space and speed, delivering what's needed for machine to machine (M2M) communication to take place on a grand scale. Add to this the fact that Moore's Law remains a constant, chips have become both smaller and more affordable, and that technology is developing at an unprecedented rate, and you have all the ingredients necessary for an explosion in M2M implementations across the globe.

Communication service providers are moving towards Tera-play, evolving to accommodate a complex ecosystem that's fast and intelligent, and constantly changing to meet market demand and innovation. Tera-play providers will do more than just connect billions of people to one another - they will be a part of M2M, ensuring that communications between trillions of devices is seamless and organic.

World-changing

The Internet of Things encompasses far more than just machines talking to one another; it has the potential to completely change the world in which we live and how we perceive reality. However, while this connected world can offer remarkable advantages to humanity there are also risks.

Today many of these solutions are being used to police people and communities, a step towards the chilling society created by George Orwell's 1984, and, as machines become increasingly autonomous and intelligent, some are concerned that Skynet may not be a fantasy after all…

So, what exactly is the Internet of Things (IoT)? Council, an Internet of Things think tank, defines it as "… a world where everything can be both analogue and digitally approached - that reformulates our relationship with objects - as well as the objects themselves. Any object that carries an RFID tag relates not only to you, but also to other objects, relations or values in a database. In this world you are no longer alone, anywhere."

The IoT is comprised of smart objects that can be interacted with remotely and those that can respond to remote interactions, or can work autonomously to deliver services and solutions without human intervention.

Nicolas Nova, a researcher at the Media and Design Lab at the Swiss Institute of Technology and founding member of Council, concludes, "To put it simply, the Internet of Things is when your everyday objects are recognisable and get intelligence thanks to the fact that they can communicate information about themselves and access information that has been aggregated by other things. Think about alarm clocks that go off early because they know there is a traffic problem, to medicine containers that tell you when you've forgotten to take your pills."

Whether you want to describe this technology as the Internet of Things, as Machine to Machine communication, or Tera-play, this evolution in technology and data, connectivity and communication, has enormous potential.

Driving forces

IoT is now experiencing a major growth spurt and this has come about thanks to several factors - IPv6, 4G, cost, and available technology are among them.

Gary Atkinson, director of embedded marketing at ARM says, "There have been bespoke devices that can gather data and transmit it over a network but they have been up to 40 dollars each, and this meant it was a massive undertaking and investment. Now we are already seeing ARM-based 32-bit microcontrollers in the sub-one dollar space, even as far down as 50 cents a chip. And when you are putting that amount of capability into a chip you can do all sorts of things with it."

ARM

ARM AND A LEG: Gathering and transmitting data is much cheaper: 32-bit micro-controllers are only 50 cents each

ARM is seeing a drive towards 32-bit microcontrollers in a world where people are keen to deploy solutions that can make some of the decisions on their own without user intervention. Gary believes that the increasingly capable controllers in the 50 cents space means that people are now able to do the sorts of things they haven't been able to do before.

"Over the next five years you will see more and more devices come to market," he says. "The challenges are going to be in managing that data and moving across to IPv6."

IPv6 is already up and running with addresses already allocated to some intrepid souls. IPv4 has run out and 2011 will see the last addresses allocated. The internet is, as they say, full.

Axel Pawlik is the managing director of RIPE NCC and he explains why IPv6 is essential to the future of IoT. "With IPv6 we now have an abundance of addresses and this opens up the ability to assign an address to every gadget and chip in the world. Solutions will be simpler and easier, transparency can be restored as each item has its own address, and the scope for development will be limitless."

Of course, consumer and organisational adoption of these technologies is as essential to the growth of M2M as anything else. Demand drives development and cheaper materials and solutions see more innovation.

Ian Pearson is a futurologist with an impressive track record across BT, Canon and Fujitsu: "What we are seeing here is unprecedented convergence and rapid development unlike anything we've had before. The energy behind this is the ongoing pressure caused by new technology that allows us to create even faster computers and technology, and as these improve there is demand for more, which drives the industry even faster. I don't see any reason for it to slow down and believe it will still be accelerating in ten years time."

Tomorrow today

In Japan, electronics firm NEC Corp has already launched interactive advertisements that determine the age and gender of passersby and tailor their content to match. A recent report commissioned by 3M/GTG with the Centre for Future Studies, suggests that this advertising revolution is going to hit the UK within the next year, and IBM is already developing billboards that can deliver customised adverts to people who carry identity tags.

This report also predicts that, thanks to massive development in face recognition techology, this form of advertising will not only analyse who you are, but what mood you're in.

It isn't all mind-reading billboards, though. Some technology has been around for many years and is so commonplace that it hardly feels like a part of some futuristic society.

Smart meters

SMART POWER: IoT offers management of the minutiae of life, where electricity monitors buy new light bulbs for us

"Lots of objects in the home are connected but you do not necessarily know it," says Nova, "Smart meters deployed by electricity companies, internet connectivity built into your TV set, and even health monitors. Think about farmers who use RFID tags to track cattle, or oil containers tracked through IoT technologies. Smartphones, GPS tracking, it's all part of the IoT."

In the second quarter of 2010 AT&T and Verizon announced that non-human objects - interconnected devices - came online in greater numbers than human subscribers. The Internet of Things is here, penetrating society quietly and efficiently.

"Many of the promises have been fulfilled," explains Dr Graeme Codrington, expert on the new world of work, Tomorrow Today UK, "Every square foot of the planet is now connected and you can be located in what is, effectively, a digital map of the earth's surface. We have so quickly taken satnavs for granted that we forget what a revolution it has been to know exactly where you are, where you want to go, and to be able to navigate through - and around - physical objects. It is remarkable but accepted as normal. The same fate awaits most IoT innovations."

So what does the future hold? From that which will control your energy usage and ensure the efficient distribution of resources to augmented reality, the Internet of Things has the potential to be both mundane and magical.

"I think one of the hot products will be video visors in the next 18 months to two years," says Pearson, "These will be semi-transparent and you can wear them on the high street, downloading and super-imposing video onto your view, an augmented reality.

"It will take time to roll out but you will see computer game characters wandering up and down the high street, buildings transformed into ones that you like the architecture of - your world will be heavily customised."

Pearson adds that with developments in chips you could have them on your body, monitoring your thoughts and emotions, "You'll see a woman walking past you on the high street and if you fancy her, or she fancies you, the computers can detect that mutual attraction better than you can and make better introductions."

CPU

BODY AND MIND: Chip development could see them on your body monitoring your thoughts

However, it won't exclusively be the high drama of augmented reality. Small things like coffee machines and light bulbs will become automated and autonomous and you won't have to worry about your energy usage, or whether or not you've got enough Java for the day.

Machines will carry on these tasks in the background, freeing you up to focus on other things and making your life easier. Already you can receive texts to warn you if your elderly parent hasn't got out of bed by a certain time.

Doctor James Bellini, a well known futurist and author, says: "We are moving to a completely new concept as to what data is all about. Data that is free of geography and driven by wireless capability and wireless networks. Just think of how it can change our lives: nano implants for diabetics who need to be monitored 24/7 and that notify the right people of any changes in status, posters that talk to you, engage with you on the subway. There has never been a decade like this in the history of the planet."

Over the next five years more and more things will act on our behalf and encourage us to do things based on our actions.

"The Internet of objects is a real change in the history of computing and technology," says Bellini, "From having everything in sodding great boxes to having everything where you want it - in things, carrying it around with you. It will be quite normal in 10 to 15 years time to carry your computing power in your clothes. You will become a bunch of data, and that data is your persona, so you are recognisable by other devices that can interact intelligently with you based on the data you are transmitting."

Soon your date will be able to determine whether or not you truly are wearing Calvin Klein pants, or whether that Rolex you're flashing on your wrist is a fake.

Minority report

GOT LUCKY?: We now have touch interfaces, facial recognition, adverts that communicate - Minority Report was on the money

But what of issues like privacy and security - all this data about our lives and preferences constantly accessed by machines and industry?

Experts are split on this issue. Some believe that security will be a non-issue, that as the technology evolves so will the measures to control and manage it. Others are not so sure, especially if the people abusing the technology are the very ones that have been put in place to control it.

"If the Internet of Things is not done properly you can just end up with a 1984-type surveillance state," says Ian Pearson, "I am quite resistant to the government using IoT because they misuse it. In the UK we already have some examples of this as councils put chips into wheelie bins so they can monitor how people use their trash. If you take this to its logical conclusion we'll end up with the Orwellian scene where the government tries to monitor the citizens while the criminals use custom networks and strong encryptions and carry on doing whatever they want."

According to Internet World Stats there were 1,966,514,816 internet users as of June 2010. This number is steadily growing as mobile and communications expand across the globe. That's a vast network of interconnected people who potentially will become hooked into the Internet of Things.A hook that may not necessarily be exclusively about medical advances and happy living in The Cloud.

"There is the possibility that certain choices will be delegated to your artefacts based on your past behaviour or new regulations. The fact that algorithms created by engineers may govern some of your choices," says Nicolas Nova.

"Think about how car insurers may change your policy if they detect that you drive too fast or regularly visit a bad neighbourhood."

I'll be back

Of course we had to ask - are we laying the groundwork for Skynet?

"Yes, there is a risk," says Axel Pawlik. "We need to ensure that end users are aware of the risks and there will be unintended side effects and surprises all over the place. We need options to counter possible issues and think about what we are building."

Grant Notman, Director of Wood & Douglas, a wireless company that provides communications hardware between machines, says, "realistically I think that Skynet is possible but, and this is a fairly big but, if you look at the state of development we are at now, there is not a driving need for that level of sophistication. There isn't a need to take technology to that point."

Dr Graeme Codrington suggests that, yes; machines will take over from people in the near future but only in low level roles. Things will no longer need humans to watch them as they can watch themselves. However, he doesn't believe that this is anywhere near the idea of Skynet.

"The goal is to build intelligence into the connected world of things, but that intelligence is going to be pre-programmed algorithms. We only have to get worried when machines start to learn for themselves and that is a long way off, if it is even possible at all."

It is unlikely that the Internet of Things will evolve into Skynet with the digital content we use today, and the costs of developing the kind of technology required to achieve that state are still prohibitive.

Gary Atkinson agrees: "The emerging population and living the way we do, plus the advancement of developing countries, is placing a huge strain on the planet. If we can monitor what's going on in real time we can make better decisions, but it is impossible to do that human to human. We have to use machines. But I do not envisage a world where these machines have the ability to launch missiles."

Terminator

SKYNET: Should we fear Skynet? There isn't a need to take technology to that point yet. Phew!

So it looks like Terminator isn't the movie we should be watching to prepare for the future after all. Time to down your Sarah Connor muscles and aim for Tom Cruise hair instead.

The 3M|GTG report highlighted at least five aspects of life from the futuristic Steven Spielberg film, Minority Report, as realities today, including touch interfaces, facial recognition, adverts that communicate, and virtual sales assistants.

There are some concerns about how the IoT will affect our security and privacy, but most feel that it has the potential to transform lives. And, if the futurists are correct, in two years you will be able to walk down the street with Gordon Freeman. Honestly, what could be better than that?





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